Cubs 2012 Offense: The Outfield
Posted: March 29, 2012 Filed under: Kevin, Players Leave a comment »A quick note on today’s roster moves. The Cubs front office has basically set the offensive Opening Day roster, and the moves reflect our predictions made in yesterday’s post on the infield and the batting order. That’s the order you should expect to see, unless there is a preseason trade (which would possibly invalidate the banners hung at Wrigley Field today).
The big surprise was that Randy Wells, our projected 5th starter, was optioned to Iowa and Jeff Samardzija was awarded a spot in the rotation. While I figured the man who missed out on the rotation would be relegated to long relief duties, Cubs’ brass felt otherwise and want to keep him stretched out as a starter in case of injury, trade, or under-performance. Barring a trade, fans should still expect to see Wells up in the bigs during 2012. Mr. Notre Dame WR simply outpitched Wells this spring and earned the final starting spot. Wells has been disappointing since his rookie year, so hopefully the demotion serves as a wake-up call. Theo and Jed used this move to show that this is a new regime and no one is going to get by on past performances. It’s not like Wells didn’t have a good spring training, he just isn’t one of the top 5 starters in the organization. This move actually points to the Cubs having some pitching depth going into the season.
I also encourage you to check out this post on The Cubs Reporter on the Cubs’ 40-man roster. It gives the number of options each player has as well as a thorough explanation of the MLB rules regarding roster moves.
And now, the 2012 preview continues as we breakdown the offense depth chart by diving into the outfield.
Word is that Sori has downsized his ridiculous leg kick
Left Field: Oh, Alfonso Soriano. The face of the Jim Hendry, frivolous, overspending era. When Theo arrived, most fans believed it to be a matter of time before Soriano along with Big Z were dumped unceremoniously for a bucket of balls, one of the Duggar children, and a “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.” Zambrano was traded, but Alfonso remains on the North Side. I actually don’t see this as a bad thing. The Cubs were never going to be able to trade Soriano after his performance last season without eating most of his salary and receiving a player who will never sniff the majors. I see no reason to do this since he actually provides the team with some power, which the Cubs sorely lack. He also is not a clubhouse cancer like Zambrano. Soriano is a lot like former Blackhawks D-man Brian Campbell-a player a Chicago team wanted badly to show fans they were focused on winning and received a paycheck that was much too large for his skills. But the MLB, unlike the NHL, doesn’t have a salary cap, so there is no need to free up space by trading Soriano. Fans aren’t really mad at Soriano-they’re mad at what Soriano represents (a team with no direction) and that they have to be reminded of that everyday for the next 4 years. So, yes, his power numbers and WAR have dropped since becoming a Cubs in 2007 (coincidentally, his best season here), and his defensive left field is among the worst in the league. But he still has 25+ HR power and based on his stellar spring training so far (he’s slugging 1.412 through 6 games), he has come prepared to play in 2012. So while Cubs fans will have to watch his poor fundamentals, they can hope that he can return to 2007 (or at least 2010)-form and show that he is good enough to be traded. Based on his 2011 BABIP, his numbers should improve. Soriano has shown he is willing to make changes (moving down in the order, getting rid of that stupid hop when he caught a flyball), so there may be hope for him yet.
Center Field: Current Cubs CF Marlon Byrd might be my favorite player to watch in the entire league. There is no player that plays the game with more passion, effort, and Little League-like joy than Byrd. I love watching him sprint around the bases after a home run and give up his body in centerfield with a smile on his face. While he isn’t a spectacular player, he plays the game the right way, and I love that the Cubs have a guy like that on a team that is rebuilding. His OPS has dropped steadily to .719 last season, and he is usually good for about 10-12 homers a season. Defensively, he is a mediocre centerfielder, and his speed is decreasing as he ages. The thing is, I am okay with that. As I said, I think that Byrd provides some intangibles that this Cubs team needs, especially as they emerge from the Hendry era. Yes, “He’s got great intangibles” is a way of justifying his average on field performance. But the Cubs have their CF of the future, and that is top prospect Brett Jackson. Jackson was the Cubs’ first round pick in 2009 and has actually been developing at a good pace. Jackson seems like he is going to be a jack-of-all-trades, master of none sort of player, but don’t let that get you down on a player who can get the Cubs to the World Series. He good defensive skills, good speed, and the ability to hit for power. Like any true Cubs prospect, he struggles with a high strikeout rate and adjusting to different pitches. It’s totally understandable that Cubs fans are nervous after both Corey Patterson and Felix Pie were disappointing to say the least. I haven’t seen him play, so it’s hard for me to deny this fear, but scouts agree that Jackson is at a higher level and has a higher ceiling than either of the past failures. It seems that the Cubs played this one right and the Cubs may have a player who could make a few All-Star Games. I would expect the Cubs to look to deal Byrd by July to a team who needs a veteran off the bench so that a spot can be cleared for Jackson. While Byrd is still with the team, look for speedster Tony Campana to provide some relief off then bench. Campana only adds one tool and that is, well, speed. He was 24/26 on stolen bases last year, which will be handy for the Cubs in 2012. Their lack of power means that they will have manufacture more runs instead of relying on some big boppers and all indications from spring training show that Sveum is going to be aggressive on the base paths. However, with Campana’s .303 OBP, will be able to get on base enough to use his dangerous speed? Either way, Campana will stick around as long as he is stealing bases, though may be shuttled back and forth from Iowa.
Dat facial hair...
Right Field: I’ll be honest, I know very little about the Cubs most notable free agent acquisition, David DeJesus. I suppose anonymity is what happens when you spend most of your days wandering the outfield for the Kansas City Royals (with last year’s excursion to Oakland being the exception). Reed Johnson. A visit to Baseball-Reference (which all baseball fans should know about and use, along with Fan Graphs) tells me DeJesus has hovered around a WAR of 3+ for most of his career, which indicates that he should be a major league starter. He has a pretty good OBP at .356, with a good walk rate and low strikeout rate. This indicates that he will hit at the top of the Cubs lineup, and though he lacks any real speed, he is respected as a smart baserunner. He didn’t have a very good 2011 with the A’s, but metrics (worst BABIP of his career) do show that his performance should climb back to his career numbers, especially since he is moving from the spacious Oakland Coliseum to Wrigley Field. He also won the Cubs inaugural bunting tournament, FWIW. If we tie all this together and throw in his 2 year/$10million contract, we see that this is a typical “Moneyball” hire that we expected in Theo’s first season. He is a piece that Cubs’ fans should get used to seeing Theo fill in around his core of Castro, Rizzo, and Jackson. The other rightfielder (though he can play all 3 spots) is fan favorite Reed Johnson, who I think is a great player to have on the bench. He is a veteran, a solid defender who can get on base and occasionally hit for power. Like Byrd, Johnson plays the game the right way, which the Cubs need on the team to push out the old ways. Johnson is cheap and you get exactly what you pay for. Johnson can fill in at all the OF positions. Cubs fans should also look for Joe Mather, who was highlighted in yesterday’s IF post, to spend some time in right. Right field will be pretty transparent this year, and some Cubs fans may forget the position exists. It’s hard to imagine this after all the years of Sammy Sosa, the disappointment of Kosuke Fukudome, and the promise/fall of Tyler Colvin. In the future, we could see a guy like Matt Szczur roaming RF, but for now DeJesus will quietly help the Cubs foundation under Theo.
Cubs 2012 Offense: The Order and the Infield
Posted: March 28, 2012 Filed under: Kevin, Offseason, Players Leave a comment »For part two of our Cubs breakdown, we will focus on the Cubs offense. We’ll present our ideal batting order and break down the fielders by position, starting with the infield. Since the goal of the Cubs’ 2012 season is developing their young talent, establishing fundamentals, and showcasing tradeable players, we will discuss what to expect from each player and where we would like to see each guy by the end of the season. Chris picked the Cubs to finish fourth in the the NL Central, saying the North Siders would have a successful season if they have a winning season. Kevin agreed with the finishing position, but has a different criteria for a successful season. If the Cubs don’t look like the Cubs of the past, aka show that they are moving in a positive direction, they will have a successful season, even if they end up below 0.500.
Offense was a complete mess for the Cubbies in 2011. Their biggest issue was driving in runs. At one point last season, the Cubs’ team batting average dropped 55 points (2nd best to 2nd worst in the NL) when runners were in scoring position. This could have been due to struggling stars, or their best player leading off (Starlin Castro), or just bad luck. Either way, the Cubs were not good at scoring runs, which isn’t all that good, as it is the main goal of baseball. They lost 23% of the team’s walks when they chose to let Carlos Pena go and have no real base stealing threat in their everyday lineup.
Rizzo has followed GM Jed Hoyer across the country
Theo Epstein has made no secrets about his plan to rebuild the Cubs, and has made some significant changes to the roster. The Cubs chose not to bring back Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, replacing them with young projects. They found a prototypical “moneyball” player in David DeJesus. No doubt, the front office wants their young guns, like Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson, to come up in May, in order to keep them under club control for a longer period. The biggest thing missing from the team is power. The little power they had last season left with Pena and ARam (28 and 26 HR’s respectively If the Cubs hope to score in 2012, they will have to manufacture runs, which seems to be something new manager Dale Sweum is very keen to do. The North Siders will need albatross Alfonso Soriano and Geovanny Soto to play closer to their career levels, and the young guns to play up to their potentials.
One note: we will be using some stats that some of you may be unaware off, but you should get to know them since Theo is now the president and baseball dives into new levels of statistical analysis. Here are some of the more common terms we’ll use. Sabermetrics is a specialized, objective analysis of baseball, which was made most famous by Billy Beane and “Moneyball”. They include stats like Batting Average on Balls In-Play (BABIP), which looks to identify over or underperforming players, or On-Base % plus Slugging % (OPS), which adds the ability to get on base to the ability to hit for power (a OPS over .900 is considered great, 1.000+ is excellent). Another is Wins Above Replacement, or WAR. This looks to see how many more wins a team would get with a certain player over a “replacement level” player. Check out Fangraphs or Cubs Den for a full explanation of advanced stats.
Here is the TCARS-approved batting order for the 2012 Cubs:
RF David DeJesus LH
2B Darwin Barney RH
SS Starlin Castro RH
1B Bryan LaHair LH
LF Alfonso Soriano RH
CF Marlon Byrd RH
C Geovanny Soto RH
3B Ian Stewart LH
Pitcher spot
Bench
OF Reed Johnson RH
IF Jeff Baker RH
C Steve Clevenger LH
IF/OFJoe Mather RH
IF Blake DeWitt LH
Clevenger and Castillo may make Soto tradeable, but Geovany must rebound offensively
Catcher: The future looked bright at the end of 2008 when Geovany Soto took home NL Rookie of the Year. Cubs fans all over thought that they had probably the most important position in baseball filled for at least 10 years with a guy who showed offensive prowess. However, Soto has been very up and down since he took home the hardware. He has battled a few injuries and hasn’t reached the home run, batting average, RBI, or games played highs that he set his rookie year. Like every Cub not named Starlin Castro, Soto especially struggled in 2011, with a career high in strikeouts and a paltry 0.721 On-base plus slugging (OPS). Unfortunately, Soto’s defense isn’t good enough to make up for a sub-standard defensive year. Both Lou Piniella and Mike Quade used Koyie Hill extensively to spell Soto, but he was an awful hitter and a poor defender in his last season (which is probably one reason both Piniella and Quade are no longer employed). At the onset of spring training, this year’s backup looked to be the young Wellington Castillo, the number 6 prospect in the farm system. While he isn’t as talented with the bat right, he is a better defender that Soto, which is excatly what you want your backup catcher to be. He is also younger, so if he proves to be a solid catcher, Soto could be trade bait. However, Steve Clevenger has had the better spring training, posting a 1.046 OPS. He is also a good defensive catcher, which is exactly what you want the backup to be, and is also a left-handed bat. While we don’t want to place too much in spring training stats, this is the right choice by the Cubs, and not just for statistical reasons. Consensus reports have Castillo rated higher and has a higher ceiling than Clevenger, and Theo Epstein would much rather have Castillo be able to catch everyday in the minors so that he can develop. This young depth at catcher makes Geovany even more expendable, especially if he is having another disappointing year. Soto will be starting the majority of games this year Since Soto’s career has been a roller coaster, I expect his stats to climb closer to what he did in 2010-.809 OPS with 17 homers in an injury shortened season. His main focus needs to be on staying healthy, though he has already been battling a groin injury in spring training.
First Base: This will be a completely experimental position for the Cubs this season. The Cubs will be giving AAA-stud Bryan LaHair the inside track to win the starting spot and hold it throughout the season. He hit 38 HR’s in AAA last year with an 1.070 OPS ans 109 RBI’s, and then followed that season up by becoming the 2012 Baseball America Winter Player Of The Year. He has a chance to be the left-handed power bat the Cubs have yearned for a long time. The jury is still out on whether he can keep up with major league pitching, logging only 69 AB’s last season while Mike Quade bounced him all over the field, or whether he can be a passable defensive player. I’m always going to be concerned about a 29-year old rookie, because you’d have to assume that there is some major flaw in that players game (especially with LaHair’s numbers) and that he is merely a 4-A player. However, I can’t say that I really trusted the Jim Hendry and front office at the end, so this has a chance to be a wonderfully surprising season for Cubs’ 1B. LaHair, though, is most likely a bridge between Derrek Lee/Carlos Pena and the highly touted prospect Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo has followed GM Jed Hoyer around the majors. He was drafted by the Red Sox while Hoyer was on Epstein’s staff their, then was the centerpiece in the Adrian Gonzalez trade once Hoyer became the Padres GM. After the Padres acquired Yonder Alonso, Rizzo become expendable, and Hoyer was once again there to scoop him up, this time for fireballer Andrew Cashner. Rizzo is very much like LaHair, tearing up AAA as a lefthanded power hitter, but has struggled in his call-ups to the majors. The key difference is that Rizzo is only 22 and has a much higher ceiling than Lahair. He ranks number 2 in the Cubs list of prospects. Although the Cubs have players like Starlin Castro and Brett Jackson, Epstein and Hoyer have made it clear that Rizzo is the player they will be building around. Expect to see him playing first base for the Cubs by season’s end, and sooner if LaHair struggles or if the Cubs are out of the playoff race.
Joe Mather has had monster spring and can play multiple positions
Second Base: Darwin Barney was a pleasant surprise in 2011, though wasn’t anything special. Barney hit 2nd for most of the season with a OBP of .313, which is not very good for a two hitter. His walk rate is incredibly low for someone who hit near the top of the order, though walking is not something the 2011 Cubs were know for. He did have a lower than average strike out rate, which is nice to see at that spot. He sticks out because he started the season very well while the rest of the Cubs not named Castro were struggling to advance past third base. The good news is that Barney is an above average to good defender, which is saying something on a Cubs team that led the NL in errors. Judging from Dale Sveum’s desire to push fundamentals, Darwin could become an even better defender in 2012. If Barney can’t increase his walk rate, he will find himself hitting at the bottom of the order, since he offers very little power. I slotted him in the 2-hole because the Cubs don’t really have other options and he has experience hitting here. I wouldn’t look for the Cubs to trade him, since he is younger and plays good defense a thin position. The Cubbies also don’t have any 2B waiting in the minors. While we’re on second base, I’ll bring up Jeff Baker, who is returning to his role as utility infielder. Baker can play every infield position with some sort of competence, though I would avoid playing him at SS if I could. He hits lefties much better than righties, so look for him to get some spot starts and some of the Cubs more important pinch hit at-bats. There is also a chance that Baker will be traded in the early season and replaced by Joe Mather, who is having a nice spring (1.197 OPS) and would be a cheaper option for the same skill set.
Third Base: It feels strange writing about the Cubs third base situation and leave Aramis Ramirez out of the discussion. Ramirez had been one of the players you just expected to see in Cubbie blue every game. Although he frequently started slow and saw his defense slowly deteriorate, ARam was know on the North Side as Mr. Clutch. However, as soon as the Cubs declined his team option and Theo came to town, fans knew Ramirez’s days were numbered. He went on to sign with division rival Milwaukee, so the Cubs will see him plenty in 2012. Epstein replaced Aramis with Ian Stewart, who was acquired in December from the Rockies in exchange for Tyler Colvin. Both Stewart and Colvin are stories of disappointment-both were top prospects in their organization, but never lived up to the hype after strong starts in the majors. Stewart’s best season was in 2009, where he hit 25 homers. However, his career OPS is .751 (very low for a power position) and hit zero-yes zero-homers last year while shuttling between the majors, AAA, and the DL. Epstein and Hoyer see potential in the left-hand hitting 3B and hope that the old “just needed a change of scenery” works for him. Given his status as a lefty, he may platoon with Jeff Baker, who as I’ve mentioned, hits well against left-handed pitching (though Epstein is against this idea). Ian can also be spelled by Blake DeWitt, who played his way back onto the roster in spring (he can also play 2nd). Stewart did go on record as saying that he felt that he wasn’t always given the best opportunity to play in Colorado, which he felt hampered his development. Unless Sveum does work a platoon at third base, Stewart will get plenty of opportunity while former top pick Josh Vitters develops in AA. Theo sees something in Stewart, as he was willing to give up on Colvin to get him so Cubs fans should place some trust in Stewart for now.
Is Starlin Castro a three hitter?
Shortstop: This might be the only position that is a lock, as well as the only position that likely won’t be brought up in trade talks. Starlin Castro is the Cubs’ star of the present and future, and thus far he has mostly lived up to expectations. Castro was one of the few bright spots for the Cubs in 2011, leading all National League hitters in 2011 with 207 hits. Castro also put up a .307 batting average, hit 10 HRs, and drove in 66 runs in 2011, all very solid numbers for a top-of-the-order type of middle infielder. If there is one thing that Castro has to improve upon in 2012, it’s his on the field discipline. Castro had 29 errors in 2011, and made far too many mental mistakes in the field. At times, Castro seemed like his head wasn’t even in the game and was caught by TV broadcasters facing the opposite direction of a live pitch while in the field. Some of this can be blamed on lack of discipline from the coaches, who will need to make sure to stay on Castro to improve his defense and situational awareness. You can also look at his age, (he’ll be 22 at the season’s start). Either way, Castro will not have Carlos Pena to bail him out at first anymore, so defensive focus is key for the Cubs infield. After Castro, the Cubs don’t have too much at shortstop on the major league roster, with guys like Darwin Barney and Jeff Baker forced to rotate over when Castro needs a day off. That said, Castro should be playing everyday regardless, since he needs to develop a full set of tools and he has youth on his side. Sveum will look to hit Castro in the three hole, something Starlin did not do well last season-his OPS dropped from .841 to .572 when he moved from leadoff to the third. He also doesn’t have the power numbers you’d like to see in that spot. However, he is the best hitter on the team and his power numbers should develop. A possible 3-4 of Castro and Rizzo in 2014 or 15 should make Cubs fans salivate. SS is a position the Cubs are set at for years (two of the Cubs top 10 prospects are shortstops-Javier Baez and Junior Lake) and Cubs fans everywhere should be excited to watch this young star grow up in front of our eyes.
Cubs 2012 Pitching: The Rotation
Posted: March 27, 2012 Filed under: Chris, Offseason, Players Leave a comment »We begin our complete breakdown of your 2012 Cubbies with the pitching rotation.
The starting rotation had a rough go in 2011, and was often depleted by injuries or players going M.I.A. (I’m looking at you Carlos Zambrano). The rotation started its downhill slide the first week of the season, when both Andrew Cashner and Randy Wells went down with injuries. Wells would return (although not quite up to his 2010 form), and Cashner never would (and has since been traded to San Diego). The further shenanigans of Carlos Zambrano meant the Cubs were without their “#1″ starter for almost 2 months. Much of the 2011 season was a patchwork of starting pitchers, with appearances from the likes of Doug Davis, Casey Coleman, Rodrigo Lopez, and Ramon Ortiz.
Seeing Big Z in anything other than Cubbie Blue just doesn't get old.
The 2012 rotation will likely be a rotating turnstile in 2012, with a number of guys trying their hands at the #4 and #5 spots. I just can’t see how two pitchers out of Jeff Samardzija, Chris Volstad, Travis Wood, Randy Wells, Casey Coleman, and Rodrigo Lopez pitch so well that they guarantee themselves a spot in the rotation throughout the entire year. I’m very hopeful that one of them will surprise us with a consistent season, but I don’t expect that from two of these guys (this is the Cubs, remember).
As far as who makes the opening day rotation, I think Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, and Paul Maholm are all locks because of their extensive big league experience. Before spring training started, I had Travis Wood as a #4 starter, but he’s absolutely tanked in his first three spring appearances. Due to his performance, as well as the minor league option still on his contract (he doesn’t have to clear waivers if sent to the minors), I expect Wood to start the season at AAA to hone his pitches. Aside from Wood, the Cubs are also looking at Casey Coleman, Jeff Samardzija, and Rodrigo Lopez for the rotation. I ruled these guys out for the following reasons:
- Casey Coleman is just not a big league starter. I think he proved that pretty effectively last year (3-9, 6.40 ERA, 1.755 WHIP in 17 starts).
- While Jeff Samardzija has proven he’s willing to work for a spot in the rotation, I don’t think he’ll be developed enough to be relied on in the rotation. However, I do see Samardzija making a few spot starts. If he excels in those appearances, he could find his way into the rotation.
- The Cubs are in a full-scale rebuilding year, and I don’t think a 36 year old arm has a place in their rotation. While Rodrigo Lopez could be fully capable of pitching some good games, I don’t think it’s in the best interest of the Dale Sveum to run a Lopez out to the hill every five days, when he has plenty of unproven, young guys that could use the innings.
Matt Garza: Ace of the future or trade bait?
#1 Starting Pitcher: Matt Garza was the most effective starter for the Cubs in 2012, and was also the only one who had a respectable WAR of +2.9 (2-5 is considered acceptable for an average, everyday player). While Garza only won 10 games, a large part of that was due to lack of run support and poor defense behind him. Garza’s K/9 was exceptionally high at 8.95, putting him at 10th amongst all big league pitchers (however, a 3.32 K/BB indicate his tendency to walk a few too many hitters). Garza also had an acceptable ERA at 3.32, which decreased from around 4.00 early in the season. While Garza’s numbers are nothing to complain about, what’s worrisome is that he’s currently the Cubs’ “ace”. When his name was brought up in trade talks this past offseason, he was discussed as #3 starter on other teams, which seems to be more on par with his current abilities. However, Garza’s finish to the 2011 season do give me a lot of hope when I look at Garza. Five of his eight final starts were all wins, and in seven of those starts Garza worked into the 7th inning or later. His back-to-back complete games towards the end of the season, along with the rest of his strong finish make me think that he still might have the potential to have a “breakout” year in 2012. If Garza can build of his solid August and September, and get some defensive help and run support, I think he could very well blossom into the anchor of this Cubs rotation for the next few years.
#2 Starting Pitcher: Ryan Dempster had a down year in 2011, finishing with a 4.80 ERA and a losing record. The only stat in 2011 that gives me any hope was his 4th straight season of 200+ innings pitched. Everything else for Dempster was below average (0.9 WAR, 2.33 K/BB) While Dempster had solid 2010 and 2009 seasons and an excellent 2008 season (posting 17 wins and a 2.96 ERA), the question now is whether or not he is now past his prime. At age 34 and in the final year of his contract, Dempster might be a trading piece at the deadline or could be simply released by the team at the end of the season. Plus, Demp does provide leadership and clubhouse intangibles (see below video), which can be very beneficial to young pitchers Wood, Volstad, and Wells. Going into 2012, I think Dempster has a slight chance to establish himself as a possible player in Theo’s long-term radar. Dempster has already said he might be willing to take a pay cut in order to end his career in Chicago, so if he is able to get his ERA back below 4.00, keep his inning production above 200, and give up fewer homeruns (average of 23 over the past 3 seasons), Theo might be willing to keep him around for a few more years (especially to mentor some younger players). However, if Dempster continues to decline next year (which I’m afraid might happen), then don’t be surprised if Theo lets him walk. While he’s not the Cubs “ace” in our eyes, Dempster will get the Opening Day start.
Maholm will provide a much-needed left-handed arm in the Cubs rotation.
#3 Starting Pitcher: The Cubs acquired Paul Maholm this offseason via free agency, paying very little for him ($4.75M) and leaving his contract with two team options for 2013 and 2014. This to me seems like a very conservative move on Theo’s part, meaning that if Maholm works out for the Cubs, he’ll be a long term #4 or #5 starter, and if he doesn’t, he’s easily disposable. Maholm gives the Cubs a much needed left-handed arm in the rotation (something they’ve lacked since the departure of Ted Lilly), and has shown a little bit of promise. At age 29, it’s still conceivable to think that Maholm has some of his better years in front of him, and his sinkerball will definitely help him keep the ball out of the bleachers at Wrigley.
#4 Starting Pitcher: Chris Volstad was acquired in the Carlos Zambrano trade this past offseason, and brings more youth to the Cubs’ rotation (25 yrs old). This move really intrigues me from Theo, especially because Volstad wasn’t anything special with the Marlins. His career 1.85 K/BB, 1.409 WHIP, and 4.59 ERA are all on the high side, and like Wood, I’m not quite sure what to think about Volstad’s future. Unlike Wood, Volstad does bring three full seasons of major league experience under his belt, which is definitely a plus at only 25 years old. However, I just can’t figure out if Volstad was the best Theo could get for Zambrano, or if he might blossom into a respectable big league starter. I think we can expect a better season from Volstad in Chicago than his seasons in Florida, as he’ll be under a better coaching staff and a more organized team overall. I personally think Volstad has the chance to be the Cubs’ most pleasant surprise in 2012, and could win as many as 12-15 games with an ERA below 4.00. We know now that Chris was right in placing Volstad in the rotation, confirmed by this tweet from Cubs Tribune columnist Paul Sullivan:
Randy Wells is looking to bounce back in 2012.
#5 Starting Pitcher: After having a spectacular rookie year in 2009, a disappointing sophomore slump in 2010, and an even worse (but injury-plagued) 2011 season, I’m wondering if Randy Wells is a part of Theo Epstein’s grand plan for the Cubs’ future. Wells’ ERA has ballooned since his rookie season (2009: 3.06, 2010: 4.25, 2011: 4.99), and it makes you wonder if big league hitters have just “figured out” how to hit Randy Wells. In 2009, Wells was excellent, having a season in which it seemed like he had a no-hitter going into the 8th inning almost every time out. But the past two seasons, his pitches looked a little bit flat and he left a few too many balls out over the plate. Expect Wells to start out the season in the rotation, but personally I think this is a make-or-break year for him. At the start of spring training, I would’ve even picked Travis Wood to get the nod over Wells for a spot in the rotation, but Wells is currently having a better spring than Wood. While Wood has imploded so far (14 runs, 6 walks, and only 4 strikeouts in just 4.2 innings), Wells has done everything he’s needed to (only 3 hits, 0 walks, 0 runs in 5.2 innings). Wells does need to have quality starts this season because he is easily replaceable.
The DH Problem
Posted: March 26, 2012 Filed under: Kevin, Miscellaneous National Topics 1 Comment »
Big Papi go boom, but only with the bat
I orginially planned to make this a part of the 2012 MLB storylines, asking the question, “What will come out on top-the NL’s pitching or the AL’s hitting?” However, this question has been been building since interleague play was introduced in 1997 and is continuing to be pushed to the forefront, especially with the rise of salaries and the Astros moving to the AL.
The divide between American and National League on the offensive side grew substantially in the offseason with the defection of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from the Senior Circuit. Among other things, these signings have led me to see that the DH position must be addressed in the next few season. It has allowed the AL to sign long term hitting talent that is in its prime and has gotten to the point where the MLB is basically operating 2 different leagues. The separate leagues worked when AL and NL teams only faced off in the World Series (well, and the All-Star game). You could have different rules because there was no crossover. Managers in each league can handle their starters, bullpen, and bench in an entirely different way due to the DH.
The use of the designated hitter has been debated since it’s inception in 1973. Baseball purists and many National League fans argue that making the pitchers hit requires more strategy and a higher baseball mind, while AL fans say that for a better quality game, since pitchers can be left in and they don’t ruin innings by being easy outs.
Personally, this issue has been building around me since my first year in college. Almost everyone one of my friends at Michigan were fans of an AL team, especially after the Tigers 2006 World Series run brought a lot of Detroit fans out of the woodwork. I would consistently have to defend why I preferred the NL-style. I would have to explain why I loved watching complete baseball players, ones who could both hit and play a defensive position, how NL managers would have strategize on when to pull their pitchers or perform double switches, and the excitement of a pitcher getting on base. Skippers had to weigh the offensive and defensive skills of his players before making potentially game-changing decisions. I actually tired myself out using these reasons on repeat, as they have become old and cliche (but none the less true). It was always hard for me to believe that a guy who played baseball professionally, regardless of position, could be so bad at hitting. I’ve come to realize now (after having to do it in high school) that it’s hard to be a consistent hitter when you are only hitting every 5 days. I hold a deep respect for career pinch hitters like Matt Stairs.
Some baseball players don’t like the idea of the DH. Adam Dunn showed hestitancy towards signing with an AL team because he knew he would be moved from first base to a full-time hitter, even though his defense left much to be desired. There is something to playing in the field that helps players keep focus throughout the next game. Guys have to throw off a bad at-bat in order to play in the field, which helps them refocus them for the next at-bat. Look at some of the 2011 DH’s-Vlad Guerrero, David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, and Hideki Matsui. All these players are either at the end of their careers or are defense liabilities. However, the transition can affect a player’s game. Though a positional change can’t be entirely to blame, Dunn’s disastrous 2011 season could have been due to what he didn’t want to do-move to DH.
The Hall of Fame also seems to look down on the DH position. Even if a guy has HOF stats, he is looked down on for being “just a DH.” And even though the AL can use a designated hitter, often times the position is filled with one of the worse hitters on the team. Look at Seattle great Edgar Martinez. He is one of 20 players in major league history whose lifetime batting average is better than .300 (.312), on-base percentage is over .400 (.418) and slugging percentage tops .500. The award for best DH is actually named after Martinez. However, he actually lost votes in the last HOF voting due to debate on whether designated hitters are worthy of the immortal HOF status.
Even as great a hitter Edgar Martinez was, he is under scrutiny for being "just a DH"
That said, it is not like the DH is a new thing. I doubt there is a player in the MLB today who can remember a time before the position was accepted (dinosaur Jamie Moyer excluded). The position is already used in high school and college. The runs per game is also dropping, now at its lowest level since 1992. While this isn’t necessarily a bad thing in my eyes, MLB wants to show that its players can produce runs in the post-steroid era. Teams have also used the position to extend careers of some great players (Manny Ramirez anyone?).
As much as I love the strategy and concept of the hitting pitcher, I think the DH needs to be implemented in both leagues. Contracts have gotten completely out of hand, and the availability of the DH in the AL allows them to sink more long term money into a hitter who is in his prime, like an Albert Pujols. Rising prices have also led teams to be more careful with their pitchers, and fans hate to see a star pitcher get hurt while hitting. The high salaries have essentially done away with the idea of the home town player. I never expected Pujols to leave the Cardinals, but a big reason Angels were able to pay him a lot of money until he is 41 is because they have that DH safety net. As a fan of an NL team, if implementing a league-wide DH will help prevent top talent from signing with AL teams, then it is a small price to pay.
The increase in interleague play is going to force the hands of major league executives. The Astros will move the the AL West, balancing the AL and NL at 15 teams apiece. You don’t need a rocket scientist to tell you that 15 is not evenly divided by 2, which leaves an AL team playing an NL team every day of the season. AL teams do not want to have to leave out one of their better hitters because the pitcher has to bat. NL teams don’t want to have to play a bench player as the DH when they are facing a team that pays a guy to exclusively DH.
The league is in a position where it cannot go back. There needs to be even footing when it comes to the rules, especially since there will be at least one interleague series going on in the MLB starting next season. And if the league is going to even things up, you can be sure it won’t be eliminating the DH. The casual fan loves offense and can’t understand why you would bat a pitcher when someone with a better bat can hit for him. The attraction of the casual fan equals money, which is king in any professional sport. Plus, the all-powerful players union will not allow the league to drop a position that allows for high pay and longer careers As I stated, equal footing needs to be reached, and if the DH position is here to stay in one league (which it is), then it needs to be adopted by the NL. For a game built on tradition, baseball has had no issue changing the game.
To answer my original question-”What will come out on top-the NL’s pitching or the AL’s hitting?”-the answer is AL hitting. Why? Because the AL has its own great pitching. The Rays have arguably the greatest staff in the whole league this year, the Tigers have an underrated staff, and the Yankees and Angels improved in the offseason. Yes, the NL has some great staffs, and did use superior pitching to win the past 2 World Series. However, great pitching can only overcome great hitting to a certain point, and if NL teams can’t score runs, then even sub 1.00 ERA’s do no good.
For me, the imbalance of hitting power that the DH position has created between AL and NL needs to be rectified. My love for the strategy used in the NL-style game is far outweighed by the advantage the AL has in signing top hitters. Baseball is a beautiful game, but it is more beautiful when the Cubs are winning.
Postseason and Awards Predictions
Posted: March 23, 2012 Filed under: Chris, Hunt for October & Postseason Baseball, Kevin Leave a comment »The division breakdowns are complete and the storylines have been laid out, so we can move onto our postseason picks, as well as who will be taking home the hardware at season’s end. You will see that we each chose 2 wildcards, as the MLB has announced an expansion of the playoffs starting this season. Chris already did the full breakdowns, with some input from Kevin, but here we will present our picks separately.
Either of us would be more than happy discussing the reasoning behind our picks. Just leave some feedback in the comments section or on Facebook.
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Gregus |
Dobbins |
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AL East |
Yankees |
Rays |
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AL Central |
Tigers |
Tigers |
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AL West |
Angels |
Angels |
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AL Wildcard #1 |
Rays |
Rangers |
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AL Wildcard #2 |
Rangers |
Yankees |
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AL Rookie |
Matt Moore (Rays) |
Matt Moore (Rays) |
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AL Manager |
Joe Maddon (Rays) |
Jim Leyland (Tigers) |
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AL Cy Young |
Jered Weaver (Angels) |
Jered Weaver (Angels) |
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AL MVP |
Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) |
Prince Fielder (Tigers) |
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Gregus |
Dobbins |
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NL East |
Phillies |
Phillies |
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NL Central |
Cardinals |
Reds |
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NL West |
Giants |
Diamondbacks |
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NL Wildcard #1 |
Braves |
Braves |
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NL Wildcard #2 |
Brewers |
Giants |
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NL Rookie |
Devin Mesoraco (Reds) |
Bryce Harper (Nationals) |
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NL Manager |
Fredi Gonzalez (Braves) |
Dusty Baker (Reds) |
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NL Cy Young |
Cole Hamels (Phillies) |
Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks) |
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NL MVP |
Justin Upton (Diamondbacks) | Matt Kemp (Dodgers) |
Gregus’ Predictions
AL Wildcard Winner – Rays over Rangers
ALDS Winners – Tigers over Rays, Yankees over Angels
ALCS Winner – Tigers over Yankees
NL Wildcard Winner – Braves over Brewers
NLDS Winners – Giants over Braves, Cardinals over Phillies
NLCS Winner – Giants over Cardinals
World Series Winner – Tigers over Giants (in 6)
Dobbins’ Predictions
AL Wild Card Winner – Yankees over Rangers
ALDS Winners – Tigers over Yankees, Angels over Rays
ALCS Winner – Tigers over Angels
NL Wild Card Winner – Braves over Giants
NLDS Winners – Phillies over Braves, Diamondbacks over Reds
NLCS Winner – Phillies over Diamondbacks
World Series Winner – Tigers over Phillies (in 7)
Ten Storylines for the 2012 MLB Season: 6-10
Posted: March 22, 2012 Filed under: Kevin, National Predictions and Breakdowns Leave a comment »With all the division previews completed, you all should have an idea of what to look for in each team as the season progresses. Of course, some predictions are sure to go wrong and injuries are bound to happen.
As we continue to prepare for the 2012 season and watch spring training wrap up (bunt contest anyone?), I want to give you 10 things to think about. Every team and fanbase is full of hope, with retooled rosters, new managers, and restructured front offices, thinking that this could be the year (except the Astros, they are truly awful). Keep an eye on these stories, as their answers could very well have huge implications on who competes in the World Series. We continue today with 6 to 10.
By no means is this a comprehensive compilation, so please let us know if you think we missed something. What are you looking for in the 2012 MLB season?
6. What is most interesting divisional race? Which will be the most boring?
7. Which team is most likely to flop?
There are a few teams to that I could put here. The Red Sox did nothing to improve themselves after their 2011 collapse and their division got no easier. The Rangers still have a phenomenal lineup, but the rotation rests on the hope of Yu Darvish. However, the team I most expect to flop is the Cincinnati Reds. Now that Pjuols and Fielder have left the NL Central for money-coated pastures, the division is up for grabs. The Brewers and Cardinals still have talent to compete, but the young talent rests with the Reds. The have a great young offense with Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and Drew Stubbs. Even though they dealt a nice hitting prospect in Yonder Alonso, they still have great pieces in SS Zack Cozart and C Devin Meseraco.
So you're cool with 150 pitches a game, right?
- I’m less than confident in their pitching however, and we haven’t gotten to what’s really standing in their way. Dusty Baker is probably the worst manager in the league. He abuses his pitching staff, makes head-scratching in-game changes, and has inexplicable yearning to play crappy veterans. The front office has put faith in both Dusty and the team. The got Mat Latos and Sean Marshall, but gave up quite a bit to get them. The rotation has potential to be good, but they are putting a lot of pressure on young players who haven’t really proven themselves on the next level. Baker also has shown desire to move fireballer Aroldis Chapman to the rotation, a move that could have a number of endings which I see all ending badly. It also is unclear whether Latos, a flyball pitcher, can translate his game from spacious Petco Park to the launching pad that is the Great American Ballpark. Dusty is worst possible person to have in charge of young players, which make up a majority of the Reds roster. I know how this ends. I still weep into my pillow at what Mark Prior could have been.
The Reds are in win now mode. The young talent is only signed for so long. The talent is there for the Reds, but all signs point to Baker getting in the way and driving another NL Central team into the ground.
8. Will Ryan Braun make us forget about his almost suspension?
As many of you know, 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun’s October urine sample came back positive for performance enhancing drugs, with his testosterone levels registering at over 20:1. As a first time offender, Braun would miss the first 50 games of the 2012 season under the MLB’s zero tolerance steroid policy. Braun immediately appealed the ruling, though no one expected it to be overturned. After all, no PED suspension had been overruled, and the MLB finally had a big name to make an example of. However, the suspension was overturned as players began returning to spring training, but not without controversy. Braun seemed to prove that the system the MLB used was flawed, but didn’t really prove that he didn’t do steroids. In his press conference, he maintained his innocence and subtlety accused the tester with tampering with his sample.
Almost every baseball fan who is not from Wisconsin is still convinced that Braun did indeed do steroids and got off on a technicality. His 2012 performance is incredibly important, not only to prove he can put up the same numbers without testing positive, but also because the Brewers lost slugger Prince Fielder in the offseason. While 2011 was his best statistical full season (his rookie year stats are insane, but ), they were on track with the rest of his career and could show a young hitter who just coming into his prime. If his stats are the same or better in 2012, he is essentially clear in my mind. As angry as the MLB is about the overturned suspension, they too must hope for another MVP-type season. The league is desperate to put the steroid era behind them, and having one of its most popular players wrapped up in a controversy is very bad.
9. Will Yu Darvish prove to be worth the money and redeem his countrymen?
Outside of Pujols and Fielder, the big offseason story was whether You Darvish would move from the Japanese leagues to the MLB, and if so, who would put up the money for him. Although Ichiro has been an All-Star since his arrival, Japanese players of late have not faired well in the the majors. Teams have to pay large fees just to discuss a contract, and franchises have been burned by the big signings. in 2007, The Red Sox paid a $51 posting fee for Daisuke Matsuzaka, and then gave him a $52 million contract. 106 games and a 4.25 ERA later, we can see that the Sox vastly overpaid (although he did help them win the 2007 title). The same can be said for the Cubs with Kosuke Fukudome and the Mets with Kaz Matsui. A few pitchers have found success in the bullpen, but there hasn’t been a real successul starter since Hideo Nomo.
Enter Darvish, who posted a 1.72 ERA and 222 strikeouts over 202 innings, which was his fourth consecutive year with a sub-2.00 ERA and a WHIP under 0.9. He is regarded as the best player to come out of Japan since Ichiro (though the same could be said of Daisuke). He is still a young player at 25, but is expected to be a top pitcher for the Rangers, who put up a total of $112 million to acquire Darvish. So will he be better than his predecessors? Signs point to yes. Darvish is tall (6’5″) and throws a variety of pitches-7 to be exact- and his fastball tops out at 94 MPH. As I said, he does have youth on his side and has been one of Japan’s top pitchers since age 20. As far as comparing him to his countrymen, he has the best stats in Nippon Professional Baseball (that’s the Japanese league) by far among the pitchers who made the switch to the MLB. If Darvish lives up to expectations, Texas has an excellent shot at winning their third straight AL pennant.
10. Can the Miami Marlins use their new acquisitions and new ballpark to compete this year?
The Marlins had one of the more interesting offseasons in recent memory. The team is trying to reinvigorate a pathetic, basketball loving, temperamental fanbase with a new stadium and a new, fairly ugly logo. For a team that has done very well developing talent from within (look at the 1997 and 2003 World Champions) and operating with a small budget, Miami (no longer Florida) invested more than $200 million dollars to some big name players-Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, Mark Buerhle, and Carlos Zambrano. They also traded 2 prospects for Ozzie Guillen, the most deplorable man in baseball. It looks as though Marlins ownership was waiting for a new stadium (paid for with taxpayer dollars of course) to open up their pockets.
The ugliness of their logo reflects their new manager's soul
While the Fish have the pitching to compete, my concern is that they have a number of explosive personalities on the team and they play in the NL’s best division. Hanley Ramirez, who is still the team’s best hitter, is very unhappy about being moved to third base due to the acquisition of Jose Reyes. Ozzie Guillen is fine when things are fine, but quickly goes off the deep end when struggles occur. Josh Johnson is a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but has proven to be fragile. And don’t get me started on Big Z. What I see happening is the hitting not meshing early in the year, dropping Miami to fourth in the division. The team, fully expected to compete with the best in the NL, is primed to fold under pressure. I will say (begrudgingly) that Guillen did good things for the White Sox when he first arrived, then went slowly downhill. This team holds tons of potential and may be playing of a rejuvenated fanbase, but they are already beginning their season on the edge of a knife.
Ten Storylines for the 2012 MLB Season: 1-5
Posted: March 21, 2012 Filed under: Kevin, National Predictions and Breakdowns Leave a comment »With all the division previews completed, you all should have an idea of what to look for in each team as the season progresses. Of course, some predictions are sure to go wrong and injuries are bound to happen.
As we continue to prepare for the 2012 season and watch spring training wrap up (bunt contest anyone?), I want to give you 10 things to think about. Every team and fanbase is full of hope, with retooled rosters, new managers, and restructured front offices, thinking that this could be the year (except the Astros, they are truly awful). Keep an eye on these stories, as their answers could very well have huge implications on who competes in the World Series. We’ll do items 1 through 5 today and 6 to 10 tomorrow.
By no means is this a comprehensive compilation, so please let us know if you think we missed something. What are you looking for in the 2012 MLB season?
1. Which team had the best offseason? Which team had the worst?
There were quite a few big bats available in the offseason, but the free agent pitching class was pretty thin. Several teams made key moves and improved themselves, but two stand out about the rest. For me, this is a tie
Not many players single-handedly make a team a World Series contender
between the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and, unfortunately, the New York Yankees. We’ll start with the Angels, who landed the MLB’s best player, Albert Pujols, and the best free agent pitcher, C.J. Wilson. The Halos haven’t had an offensive centerpiece since Vlad Guerrero and it showed. The Angels were in perfect position to sign a guy like Pujols and not truly be guilty of overspending. They have the right supporting cast for a start, like Howie Kendrick, Mark Trumbo, and Vernon Wells, and already had a very nice rotation. They saw something they wanted and they got it, and that something can propel them to the World Series. The Yankees, shockingly, got exactly what they needed in the offseason-pitching. The team has a stellar lineup, but had a rotation that left a lot to be desired. The Yanks addressed this by signing Hideki Kuorda and trading for young stud Michael Pineda. Then, they also found a way to dump the struggling A.J. Burnett on the hapless Pirates, somehow getting prospects and cash back (Burnett would go on to break his face). They now have a rotation that can hang with the best of the AL, like the Rays, Tigers, and aforementioned Angels, and no longer have that albatross hanging around their neck come playoff time.
There were also those teams who either did nothing to help themselves, or who made a number conflicting moves with involved unloading young talent while taking on aging players. I was set to give this to the Oakland Athletics, but after further thought, I don’t have an big issue with what Bill Beane did in trading away two young pitchers (Cahill and Gonzalez) and a nice closer (Bailey). Let’s face it-with the Angels getting Pujols and the Rangers offense, the A’s were set to finish no better than third. Beane got a lot of young talent back in return and will focus on preparing on building another great rotation for the future (though you can only recycle pitchers for so long). So, I give my worst offseason award to another team seemingly going in two opposite directions, and I do so with a huge smile on my face-the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox seemed to be in win now mode, but had an awful 2011. Their big signings did nothing, the pitching was disappointing, and they never came close to challenging for the division. GM Kenny Williams let fan favorite Mark Buehrle walk, traded away OF Carlos Quentin and RP Sergio Santos, but then resigned starter John Danks. The Sox can’t really rebuild with the massive contracts and a dreadful farm system, but they don’ have a team that can really challenge the revamped Tigers for the division crown or other AL powers for the expanded wildcard. This team looks to be dead in 3 years, so Williams indecision to rebuild or compete is truly perplexing.
No team did less with more than the 2011 Boston Red Sox. Their September collapse was one for the ages, and the offseason fallout it caused left the team with an entirely new front office and coaching staff. They have had the whole offseason to think about what happened and have allowed pretty much every finger to be pointed, with the blame shifting from one person to another. There was the whole beer in the clubhouse fiasco, then blame toward management for losing control. Gone are GM Theo Epstein (to the Cubs) and manager Terry Francona, who swapped places at ESPN with Bobby Valentine. Other than that, the BoSox did little to improve the holes that popped up through their collapse. Closer Jonathan Papelbon left for the Phillies, replaced by Andrew Bailey, but that was the only real move new GM Ben Cherington made. The rotation, which was very disappointing in 2011, is pretty much the same. While I think Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Clay Buchholz can be a solid top 3, I have zero confidence in Daisuke Matsuzaka (how is he still in the MLB) and bullpen-to-rotation candidate Daniel Bard. The offense will be what carries Boston through the season, and there is no reason why anyone should doubt they can do that. The lineup boasts Gonzalez, Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Youklis. While David Ortiz is only getting older, he fits in to that lineup well, and Carl Crawford can’t really have a worse year than he did.
3. How will the new playoff format play out?
For the first time since 1994, the MLB will be adding more teams to its playoffs. While the actual format is yet to be determined, all signs point to adding an additional wildcard team in each league, then having the two wildcard teams have a one- or three-game play-in. Each league will add a wildcard team, and then have the wildcard teams square off in a one game play-in game. I think the right think to do is to keep the playoffs they way they are, with just one change. I love that it is so tough to get into the MLB playoffs. It makes the regular season and the divisional races incredibly meaningful, and September is always very exciting. I would make one change, which would be to expand the LDS to a 7 game series. Five games is too short, and going down 2-0 is pretty much a death sentence. The MLB also got rid of the rule that prevents division foes from playing each other in the LDS-I agree, as there aren’t enough teams for this to make sense. But more teams equals more money for the league, so a playoff expansion should be-check that, is-expected.
If there is indeed just a one-game play-in, there becomes a big advantage to taking the division. It’s plain to see that the MLB is trying to replicate what happened at the end of last season. While that was probably one of the best nights in baseball history, I don’t see a one-game play-in to be the best idea. The 162 game season is too long for it to come down to one-game. The wildcard round would allow the division winners to have a bye period, though this is not necessarily a good thing. Yes, pitchers can be rested, but there is always something to be said for momentum. Honestly, I am pretty indifferent here. I’d like to see the playoffs stay like they are (with the minor changes I proposed), but there is no doubt in my mind that the current wildcard format reinvigorated baseball. More wildcard teams will also allow good teams that play in highly competitive divisions like the AL East to prove themselves in the playoffs. I will say that we shouldn’t see the playoffs being expanded by multiple rounds, since the way pitching is set up in the league puts a limit on innings in a season.
4. Who are this year’s Diamondbacks (sleeper teams)?
In the NL, I’ll take Colorado Rockies to be the sleep team. The NL West is truly wide open this year, boasting 4 teams that can compete for the division crown, but are all incomplete. The Giants have a stellar rotation, the Dodgers have a nice lineup, and the Diamondbacks have some of both. The D-backs won last year on pitching from some surprising names and an MVP-caliber season from young stud Justin Upton. Ian Kennedy nearly won the Cy Young, finally finding his place after floundering with the Yankees. Closer J.J. Putz returned to form, with 45 and a sub 1.00 WHIP. I see the same promise in the Rockies this year. While I don’t think they will have a Cy Young candidate, the rotation is full of potential. Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin are capable of anchoring the rotation. A number of top pitching prospects are ready to fill the 3-5, such as Alex White, Drew Pomeranz (both of whom came in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade), and Tyler Chatwood. SS Troy Tulowitzki had a stellar 2011 and is more than capable of winning the 2012 MVP. I also look for Carlos Gonzalez to get back to his 2010 levels (though his 2011 was actually pretty good), as well as Dexter Fowler finally breaking out. Rockie-lifer Todd Helton is still managing to put up decent numbers and I like the acquisition of Michael Cuddyer, who should regain some power in Coors Field. As you can see, their success relies on many pieces playing up to their potential, but that is the definition of a sleeper.
I've come to accept this man can mash in multiple seasons
In the AL, I’ll take Toronto Blue Jays. The poor Blue Jays have the misfortune of playing in the deepest division in baseball, the NL East. The Yankees and Red Sox use their considerable means to acquire tons of top-tier talent, while the Rays used a number of high draft picks to build one of the most solid farm systems in the league. Whenever Toronto was on the verge of breaking out, the got stamped down by the top of the division and have gotten well acquainted to finishing 4th. Since they seem to be sellers at every trade deadline, as well as a team willing to give almost anyone a chance, the Jays have accrued some nice young talent that looks to be finally ready. While many still believe them to be a year off from making real noise in the AL East, I believe they have the ability to challenge for a wildcard spot in 2012. The Jays strength is their lineup, but the rotation, like the Rockies, has potential to surprise this year. On the offensive side, I need to stop doubting Jose Bautista, who has led the AL in HR for 2 straight seasons. I see no reason why he can’t keep up those numbers. ColbyRasmus was a top prospect for the Cardinals, but he was traded to the Jays last year due to under-performance and conflicts with Tony La Russa. A change of scenery could do him well. The Jays also boast one of the best young hitting prospects in Brett Lawrie who came on very strong last year (.953 OPS in 150 AB’s), as well as catcher and home run threat J.P. Arencibia. From a pitching standpoint, Ricky Romero and Brendan Morrow are an underrated 1-2 punch. 3-5 are all young guys that have battled injuries but have potential to be a solid back end. The back end make not win them games directly, but can hold the game within reach for the offense. The team (and me) is not ready to give up on P Kyle Drabek, the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay deal. Again, this team will be carried by the offense, but the pitching has a decent chance to take them to the next level.
5. How will relocation affect Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, and how will their former teams deal with their absence?
The Tigers surprised everyone by swooping in to replace the injured Victor Martinez with native son Prince Fielder. The thought of he and Miguel Cabrera hitting back to back should strike fear in any MLB rotation. Prince strikes me as someone who pairs well with others, but would struggle carrying a team on his own (note: This is just based on my own eye test). So, I believe he will slot in very nicely into the Tigers lineup. Because of the lineup around him, there is a good chance that Fielder could put up better numbers, at least power-wise, than Pujols. The Brewers, meanwhile, are still a team that can compete for the Central, especially after the Ryan Braun ruling. They have a top-heavy rotation and a nice bullpen, which will have to step up in Fielder’s absence. There is no doubt that their runs scored will drop off, but they are not dead in a weak NL Central.
2012 NL Central Breakdown
Posted: March 20, 2012 Filed under: Chris, National Predictions and Breakdowns Leave a comment »To get ready for the 2012 MLB season, we start by breaking every team, division by division. In the following posts, you’ll see each division discussed by Key Additions and Key Departures for each big league team, what each team has to do to consider their season a success, and a summary analysis of what to watch for with each team. Additionally, we’ve ranked each team within their division and given them an expected record (DISCLAIMER: We did not assign the records while taking mathematics or statistics into account . These records are all rough guesses at where we think each team will finish). We’ll release one division each day, and then move into more specific Cubs previews and predictions the closer we get to Opening Day.
We close out our division breakdowns today with the NL Central. Cubs fans everywhere are hoping that the defections of Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols to the American League will mean a better chance for the Cubbies…
6. Houston Astros (52-110)
Key Additions: Zach Duke, Livan Hernandez
Key Departures: Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence (Pence & Bourn were traded at the deadline in 2011, but are two of the largest gaps the Astros need to fill).
Successful Season If: The Astros don’t set MLB’s single season losses record.
Summary: The ‘Stros are a bad baseball team. Very, very bad. The Astros team that lost 106 games in 2011 didn’t get any better, especially since their biggest offseason moves were adding two mediocre pitchers in an aging Livan Hernandez (37 yrs old) and Zach Duke whose lifetime ERA is a tick over 4.50. The only bright spot on this team is the vast wealth of young talent in the bullpen; however, any reliever throwing particularly well will be subject to trade talks with teams in playoff contention.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (65-97)
Key Additions: Rod Barajas, Clint Barmes
Key Departures: Derrek Lee, Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Ludwick, Paul Maholm, Russ Ohlendorff
Successful Season If: The Pirates finally finish .500 or better for the first time since 1992.
Summary: The Pirates finally showed some life in Clint Hurdle’s first year in Pittsburgh, competing for the NL Central as late as July. For the first time in years, the Pirates were even buyers at the trade deadline, acquiring both Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick. Once the team went on a 10 game losing streak in late July, things have only gone downhill from there. The Pirates have subsequently let Lee and Ludwick go, and have also dumped Paul Maholm and Russ Ohlendorff, leaving the rotation very suspect. Additionally, they’ve had trouble signing Andrew McCutchen to a long term deal, leaving his future with the team in question [EDIT: McCutchen signed a 6 year, $51.5 million contract, thanks to a reader for catching this]. This team will have a tough time duplicating last year’s early season magic.
4. Chicago Cubs (70-92)
Can Dale Sveum and Theo Epstein bring a World Series title to the North Side?
Key Additions: Ian Stewart, David DeJesus, Travis Wood, Paul Maholm, Chris Volstad
Key Departures: Sean Marshall, Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez
Successful Season If: The Lovable Losers have a winning season.
Summary: The Theo Epstein has begun in Chicago. Theo’s braintrust has already begun changing the look of this team by dumping large contracts such as Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, and has proven that anyone is on the chopping block with the trading of the 2011 team’s best reliever in Sean Marshall. This will be an interesting year for the start of a new era on the North Side, and we’re not really sure what to expect with this Cubs team. I’d love to be surprised, but I’ve learned to expect nothing from the Cubs. (More to come on the Cubbies’ 2012 campaign, of course)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (80-82)
Key Additions: Carlos Beltran
Key Departures: Tony La Russa, Albert Pujols
Successful Season If: The Cards make the playoffs.
Summary: Finally. To the chagrin of the Cubbie-faithful everywhere, both La Russa and Pujols are no longer in St. Louis. The Cardinals have lost (arguably) both the best hitter and best manager over baseball’s past 10 years. How La Russa steered the Cardinals to championship seasons in 2006 and 2011 is beyond any logic, and Pujols’ bat is irreplaceable. This team should be solid, especially if Wainwright are Carpenter perform up to their usual standards. However, this team could have a rocky first year under Mike Matheny.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (85-77)
As former University of Miami student, should we be surprised that Ryan Braun got caught with illegal substances?
Key Additions: Aramis Ramirez
Key Departures: Prince Fielder
Successful Season If: The Brewers win the NL Central.
Summary: Both Fielder and Pujols to the AL?! It’s a North Sider’s dream come true! Unfortunately for the Brew Crew, Fielder’s departure is huge and his replacement in the lineup, Aramis Ramirez, will not come close to his productivity . The uncertainty surrounding Ryan Braun is also very troubling. Even though it appears Braun is good to go for the entirety of the 2012 season, you have to wonder if the steroid talk will affect his performance on the field. This team will still be solid, with a great top of the rotation (Yovani Gallardo, Zach Greinke) as well as a dependable supporting cast (Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, Aramis Ramirez). Look for this Brewers team to put up a good fight for the NL Central though.
1. Cincinnati Reds (88-74)
Key Additions: Matt Latos, Ryan Ludwick
Will Dusty Baker and his toothpick braiding bring the NL Central crown to Cincy?
Key Departures: Francisco Cordero, Edison Volquez, Edgar Renteria
Successful Season If: The Reds win the NL Central and a playoff series. Also, Dusty Baker’s game management doesn’t result in multiple pitchers needing Tommy John surgery.
Summary: This Reds team definitely attempted to make major upgrades, adding a potential ace to the rotation in Matt Latos, as well as acquiring Sean Marshall and Ryan Madson to fill the gap in the bullpen left by Francisco Cordero. The Reds still have a solid core of hitters, led by Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Scott Rolen (and bolstered by Ryan Ludwick). However,one thing will stop this Reds team from achieving greatness (Cubs fans, cover your ears): Dusty Baker. The master of leaving pitchers on the mound well past 120 pitches, pinch hitting so that he can bunt, and double switching for no apparent reason has been at his finest in Cincy. Reds fans, all we have to say in Chicago is don’t be surprised when Latos is still on the mound with a 7 run lead in the 8th inning. In Miami. In July. With a pitch count of 125.
2012 NL East Breakdown
Posted: March 19, 2012 Filed under: Chris, National Predictions and Breakdowns Leave a comment »To get ready for the 2012 MLB season, we start by breaking every team, division by division. In the following posts, you’ll see each division discussed by Key Additions and Key Departures for each big league team, what each team has to do to consider their season a success, and a summary analysis of what to watch for with each team. Additionally, we’ve ranked each team within their division and given them an expected record (DISCLAIMER: We did not assign the records while taking mathematics or statistics into account . These records are all rough guesses at where we think each team will finish). We’ll release one division each day, and then move into more specific Cubs previews and predictions the closer we get to Opening Day.
We begin to wrap things up today with the NL East. This race should be very interesting, with the Marlins bringing in plenty of (fiery, explosive, prima donna) fresh talent, and the Phillies looking to win their sixth consecutive division title.
5. New York Mets (65-97)
Key Additions: None
Key Departures: Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan
Successful Season If: The Mets win 70 games (and the front office gains a sense of direction).
Summary: It amazes me just how awful this team has been over the past few years whenever I consider how much (former) talent the Mets hoarded. If I told you 5 years ago that a team Johann Santana, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Jason Bay, and Jason Isringhausen would never make the playoffs, you probably wouldn’t believe me (until I told you that it was the Mets). Maybe this team will finally live up to its supposed talent, but don’t expect much from the Mets. Especially with the departure of Reyes, expect the Mets to be a bottom feeder in the NL.
4. Washington Nationals (78-84)
Key Additions: Stephen Strasburg (back from injury), Edwin Jackson
Will Stephen Strasburg return to his dominant form with a healthy 2012 season?
Key Departures: Ivan Rodriquez, Livan Hernandez
Successful Season If: Bryce Harper wins the NL Rookie of the Year and Stephen Strasburg returns to full health.
Summary: The Nationals’ 2012 campaign will be very intriguing with the return of electric Stephen Strasburg and the debut of Bryce Harper. Both prospects have been extremely hyped , and in his brief stint before getting injured in 2010, Strasburg definitely did not disappoint. The Nationals put together a decent 2011 season, almost finishing at .500 for the first time since 2005. Look for some improvements in this Nationals team, but don’t expect them to make the playoffs. However, a team limiting the pitch count and innings of its best pitcher (Strasburg) doesn’t scream “playoffs” to me.
3. Miami Marlins (84-78)
Key Additions: Ozzie Guillen (manager), Mark Bueherle, Jose Reyes, Carlos Zambrano, Heath Bell
Key Departures: Javier Vazquez
A sight Cubs fans like to see... Big Z in any uniform but the Cubbie Blue.
Successful Season If: The clubhouse of Ozzie Guillen, Hanley Ramirez, and Carlos Zambrono does not start nuclear war. Also, the Marlins find someone willing to lend their sponsorship name to “Marlins Park”, and the stadium sells more than 5,000 tickets a game.
Summary: Marlins ownership decided to take on a new look in 2012 with a new ballpark, new name, new uniforms, new players, and a new manager. The team brings together a slew of big name free agents, seemingly copying another Miami franchise (*cough* Heat *cough*). The addition of Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, Carlos Zambrano, and Mark Bueherle are all definitely all upgrades for Miami. This team has some talent, and if it plays up to its potential and everyone gets along Miami could make a postseason run. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if loose canons Ozzie Guillen, Hanley Ramirez, and Carlos Zambrano don’t create a poor clubhouse atmosphere and this team folds because it doesn’t have the right chemistry.
2. Atlanta Braves (89-73)
Key Additions: None
Key Departures: Derek Lowe
Successful Season If: The Braves don’t collapse in September and make the playoffs.
Summary: Despite their massive late-season collapse in 2011, the Atlanta front office must believe that the Braves have all the pieces in place to be strong postseason contenders. The Braves were in a holding pattern this offseason, and this team will basically look the exactly the same as it did in 2011. For the Braves to get better results, they will need Jason Heyward to bounce back from a less-than-stellar 2011, as well as Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, and Tommy Hanson to return from late season injuries and surgeries. As long as this team stays healthy and receives moderate production, it should again be a contender late in September.
1. Philadelphia Phillies (94-68)
Will Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay continue to dominate opposing hitters?
Key Departures: Roy Oswalt, Ryan Madson, Raul Ibanez
Successful Season If: The Phillies win the World Series. With the way the Phillies are aging, anything less would be a step in the negative direction.
Summary: The Phillies are getting old, and they’re getting old quickly. Last season was a major letdown for Philly, who staked it all on the most talented pitching staff in baseball, but were (ironically) out-dueled by St. Louis’s Chris Carpenter in 1-0 loss in Game 5 of the NLDS. The Phillies still have the best pitching staff in baseball, even without Roy Oswalt, but the question will always be the offense. If the Phillies can get production out of Ryan Howard (who is out until May), Chase Utley, and Placido Polanco, then they could be the best team in baseball.
2012 NL West Breakdown
Posted: March 15, 2012 Filed under: Chris, National Predictions and Breakdowns Leave a comment »To get ready for the 2012 MLB season, we start by breaking every team, division by division. In the following posts, you’ll see each division discussed by Key Additions and Key Departures for each big league team, what each team has to do to consider their season a success, and a summary analysis of what to watch for with each team. Additionally, we’ve ranked each team within their division and given them an expected record (DISCLAIMER: We did not assign the records while taking mathematics or statistics into account . These records are all rough guesses at where we think each team will finish). We’ll release one division each day, and then move into more specific Cubs previews and predictions the closer we get to Opening Day.
Today, we look at the NL West, a division that appears to be wide open. The Rockies, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Giants all seem to have a chance…
5. San Diego Padres (68-94)
Key Additions: Carlos Quentin, Huston Street, Edison Volquez
Key Departures: Mat Latos, Heath Bell
Successful Season If: The Padres finish higher than 5th in the NL West.
Summary: The Padres didn’t look great in 2011, and gave up two of their best players heading into the 2012 season in Matt Latos and Heath Bell. Don’t expect this team to do much, especially considering the organization is extremely cash-strapped right now. The Padres do have some young arms, so look for an attempt to incorporate some of those guys late in the season.
4. Colorado Rockies (75-87)
Key Additions: Michael Cuddyer, Casey Blake, Jamie Moyer
Key Departures: Huston Street, Chris Ianetta
Successful Season If: The Rockies finish above .500.
Summary: The 2012 Rockies will look a lot different than the 2011 squad. These Rockies seem to be hedging their vets on veteran free agent signings, such as Michael Cuddyer, Casey Blake, and Jamie Moyer (is he really still playing baseball?). If s
ome of these vets can deliver as they have in the past, then the Rockies might compete for playoff contention. However, the rotation isn’t very deep past Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge De La Rosa, and the offense just doesn’t have the run producers needed to put together a deep push. These Rockies might put a little run together at some point this summer, but don’t expect them the magical mile high late season streaks we’ve been accustomed to.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (85-77)
Key Additions: Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano
Key Departures: Hiroki Kuroda, Jon Garland
Successful Season If: The Dodgers find a way into the postseason and quietly clear up their ownership situation.
Summary: The Dodgers have a lot up in the air right now, with a change in ownership still in the works. Until the dust settles on the ownership change (hopefully before the summer), there will be plenty of questions with the direction that this Dodgers team is going. For now, look to another solid season by the 2011 NL MVP’s second-highest vote-getter, Matt Kemp, as well as Andre Ethier, but the overall offensive production will hinge on the shaky rest of the lineup . The starting rotation has plenty of questions at the backend, but reigning NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Ted Lilly will provide a firm anchor to the staff.
Will Buster Posey's return bring the Giants back to the postseason?
2. San Francisco Giants (87-75)
Key Additions: Buster Posey (back from injury), Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan
Key Departures: Carlos Beltran, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand
Successful Season If: Buster Posey returns to 2010 form and the Giants win the NL West.
Summary: The Giants seem to be banking much of their offensive production in 2012 on a healthy Buster Posey. The offense lacks a supporting cast around Posey, although Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera should be minor upgrades. The rotation should be solid, with TimLincecum, Matt Cain, and Ryan Vogelsong all turning in ERAs under 3.00 in 2011, and Madison Bumgarner putting up a not too shabby 3.21 ERA. Even with the solid rotation, the Giants lack the offense needed to make a strong push for the postseason.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72)
Will Ian Kennedy carry his breakout 2011 season into 2012?
Key Additions: Jason Kubel, Trevor Cahill
Key Departures: Jason Marquis, Micah OwingsSuccessful Season If: The D’Backs win the NL West.
Summary: The Diamondbacks are coming off an excellent 94 win regular season, and almost advanced to the NLCS with a heartbreaking 1-run loss to Milwaukee Game 5 of the NLDS. This team is returning most of their key pieces from last season; however, questions about Stephen Drew’s health and the strength of the rotation lead me to question whether or not they are a solid playoff team. However, lack of competition from the other teams in the division gives the Diamondbacks their second straight NL West title.
